TOL stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• Toll Brothers closed at $148.27 on August 14, 2026, about 1.7% below its mid-July level, marking a contained 30-day move.
• The shares remain roughly 17% higher over the trailing three months following a strong fiscal second-quarter report in May 2026.
• Fiscal Q2 2026 results beat estimates, with EPS of $2.72 versus a $2.58 consensus and revenue of $2.53 billion versus $2.42 billion expected, even as revenue declined 7.6% year over year.
• Net signed contracts rose 7% in units and 8% in dollar value year over year, signaling resilient demand among affluent buyers.
• Fiscal Q3 2026 results are scheduled for August 18, 2026 after the close, with consensus estimates near $2.92 EPS on roughly $2.62 billion in revenue.
• Wall Street consensus stands at Moderate Buy, with an average 12-month price target near $164.88.

Current Market Snapshot

Toll Brothers shares ended the August 14, 2026 session at $148.27, down 0.7% for the day and roughly 1.7% below the July 17 close of $150.76. The move reflects a choppy, range-bound stretch for the luxury homebuilder rather than a sharp directional shift. The stock traded between roughly $145 and $155 through late July and early August, finishing near the middle of its 52-week range of about $123.15 to $168.36. TOL sits just below its 50-day average and slightly above its 200-day average, with a market capitalization near $13.9 billion. Elevated mortgage rates and affordability concerns continue to shape sentiment across the homebuilding group, keeping trading activity sensitive to rate and housing data.

Toll Brothers (TOL) Business Overview and Competitive Position

Toll Brothers, Inc. is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States, designing, building, and selling detached and attached homes in more than 60 markets across 24 states. Its communities serve move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers, and the company also develops urban condominium and for-rent projects. Ancillary operations include mortgage lending, title services, landscaping, and internal lumber distribution and component assembly, giving Toll Brothers a vertically integrated model. With average delivered prices near or above $1 million, the company maintains one of the highest price points among public homebuilders, reinforced by premier land holdings and customizable designs. Larger production-oriented peers such as Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) operate in different buyer and price segments, making Toll Brothers' luxury focus a distinct demand story.

Recent Developments Driving TOL

The most significant near-term event is the company's fiscal third-quarter report, scheduled for after the close on August 18, 2026, with a conference call the following morning. Consensus estimates project EPS of about $2.92 on revenue near $2.62 billion; individual estimates range from roughly $2.69 to $3.03, reflecting uncertainty about order trends, incentives, and margins.

In May, Toll Brothers reported fiscal Q2 EPS of $2.72 on $2.53 billion of revenue, beating consensus while revenue declined 7.6% year over year. Orders increased 7% in units and 8% in value, and the company raised its full-year delivery guidance to 10,400-10,700 homes. For the fiscal third quarter, management guided deliveries of 2,600-2,700 homes at an average price of $965,000-$985,000 and adjusted gross margin of about 25.25%.

Analyst activity has been mostly supportive. Citigroup upgraded the stock to Buy with a $176 target in July, Weiss Ratings raised its rating, and the broader consensus remains Moderate Buy with an average target near $164.88. The company also paid a $0.26 quarterly dividend on July 24, 2026, and options-market data show elevated implied volatility into the earnings report. Institutional ownership is approximately 92%, with recent SEC filings showing ongoing accumulation by funds.

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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch

Investors will focus first on the fiscal Q3 release and any updates to full-year guidance. Key metrics include deliveries, average selling price, gross margin versus the roughly 25.25% Q3 guide, and the company's expectation for a margin rebound toward 26.3% in Q4. Order growth and backlog durability will also matter: as of April 30, 2026, backlog stood at 5,394 homes worth about $6.32 billion.

Macroeconomic conditions remain central. Mortgage rates, affordability, and consumer confidence will shape demand, while Toll Brothers' affluent customer base has so far proven more resilient than the broader market. Capital returns are another factor, with the company reaffirming a $650 million fiscal 2026 repurchase target and maintaining its quarterly dividend. Risks to monitor include margin pressure from incentives, input-cost inflation, regional softness, and lower joint-venture and land-sales income.

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